As of the morning of November 4, local time, according to data from the University of Florida Election Lab, more than 78.02 million voters in the United States have voted in advance for the 2024 presidential election, close to half of the total 160 million votes in 2020. This reflects the high level of public participation in this US election.

The two main candidates – US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris and former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump – are competing fiercely for support nationwide and in key “swing states”. In different polls, the two have their own advantages.

Political aspects:

Policy direction:

If Trump is elected: Trump has always advocated “America First” and may be more inclined to protectionism in policy. For example, he may continue to impose high tariffs on foreign goods, which may protect US domestic industries to a certain extent, but it is also easy to trigger retaliatory measures from other countries, exacerbate tensions with major trading partners such as the European Union, disrupt global supply chains, and increase market uncertainty. In terms of immigration policy, he claims to implement the largest immigrant deportation operation in US history, which will have a significant impact on the immigrant community in the United States and may also cause further division in society. In domestic affairs, he advocates the removal of job-killing regulations, deregulation and increased oil and gas production to lower oil prices, and tax cuts on companies to revitalize the economy, but these policies may exacerbate social problems such as the gap between the rich and the poor.

If Harris is elected: She may continue some of the policies of the Biden administration, emphasize cooperation with allies in international affairs, and enhance the United States’ leadership in global affairs through measures such as rejoining the Paris Agreement. In terms of domestic policies, she proposed to increase taxes on the rich to fund medical care, education and infrastructure construction, and is committed to reducing the gap between the rich and the poor and promoting broader economic opportunities. However, the implementation of her policies may be constrained by the Republican Party and other opposition forces.

Political ecology:

If Trump is elected: In the past, Trump has not recognized the results of the 2020 election and incited mass emotions in the “Capitol Storming Incident” on January 6, 2021. If he is re-elected, it means that the political tradition of the United States since Washington has been greatly impacted. In addition, the Trump faction has used “conspiracy theories” and “personal attacks” to “stigmatize” the so-called democratic institutions, including attacks on the fairness of election institutions, the judicial system and the media, which has weakened the public’s trust in these democratic institutions. If Trump is re-elected, this attack on democratic institutions may continue, further exacerbating the confrontation and division in American politics.

If Harris is elected: It may ease the current tension in American politics to a certain extent and help repair the image and reputation of the Democratic Party. However, due to the serious political polarization in the United States, the Republican Party may continue to resist and oppose her policies, and the political struggle will continue, but it may be different in terms of method and degree from the Trump era.

Relations between the two parties:

If Trump is elected: Trump’s transformation of the Republican Party has made the party more inclined to cater to his base demands. If he is re-elected, the establishment, moderates and centrists within the Republican Party may be further marginalized, and the differences and contradictions within the party may become more acute. At the same time, the Democratic Party’s opposition to Trump will become stronger, and the confrontation and conflict between the two parties may reach a new height, which will further hinder the legislative process of the US Congress and affect the country’s governance efficiency.

If Harris is elected: The contradictions between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party are still difficult to reconcile, but Harris may adopt a more moderate approach to communicate and negotiate with the Republican Party, trying to promote some policies that both parties can accept. However, due to the huge differences in the positions of the two parties on many issues, cooperation is still very difficult.

Social aspects:

Racial relations:

If Trump is elected: Some of his remarks and policy propositions are considered to have racist tendencies, such as his tough stance on immigration issues, which may exacerbate racial conflicts in American society. His unfriendly attitude towards ethnic minorities may trigger dissatisfaction and protests from ethnic minority groups, further tearing apart American society.

If Harris is elected: As a woman of color, Harris’s election may ease racial conflicts to a certain extent and enhance the political participation and identity of ethnic minorities. Her commitment to emphasizing social fairness and racial justice may promote the implementation of some policies that are beneficial to ethnic minorities, but this may also trigger a backlash from extreme forces such as white supremacists.

Social rift:

If Trump is elected: The antagonism between his supporters and opponents is already very serious, and if he is re-elected, this antagonism may be further intensified. His style of doing things and his speech are prone to cause controversy, which may make it more difficult to heal the division of society, and the contradictions and conflicts between different groups may continue to escalate.

If Harris is elected: Although she tries to adopt a more inclusive policy, the division in American society is already deeply rooted and it is difficult to completely eliminate it in the short term. Her policies may be supported by some people, but they will also be opposed by others. The social rift may continue to exist, but it may be alleviated to a certain extent.

People’s livelihood issues:

If Trump is elected: The policies he advocates, such as tax cuts and deregulation, may stimulate economic growth to a certain extent, but may also lead to a further widening of the gap between the rich and the poor, and the living pressure of the middle- and low-income groups may increase. In addition, his unclear attitude towards medical reform may affect the medical insurance of the people.

If Harris is elected: The policies she proposed to increase taxes on the rich and expand social welfare such as medical care and education may help improve the living conditions of the middle- and low-income groups, but the implementation of these policies requires a lot of fiscal expenditures, which may increase the fiscal pressure of the government and may also cause dissatisfaction among some taxpayers.