
The impact of Trump’s return on the United States
Economic policy
Short-term stimulus: Trump emphasizes increasing oil and gas production to reduce energy costs, which may have a certain boost to the traditional energy industry in the United States in the short term, promote the development of related industries, increase employment opportunities, and promote economic growth. He may also stimulate the economy through policies such as increasing investment in infrastructure construction, which will have a short-term positive impact on the US economy.
Long-term uncertainty: Trump’s trade protectionism policy may trigger global trade tensions and lead other countries to implement trade retaliation against the United States, which may have a negative impact on US export companies and companies that rely on global supply chains, and in the long run, it is not conducive to the sustainable development of the US economy. In addition, large-scale fiscal stimulus policies may lead to further expansion of the fiscal deficit, increase the US debt burden, and bring hidden dangers to economic stability.
Social policy
Benefits for some groups: Trump’s tough immigration policy caters to the demands of some Americans for border security and employment opportunities, and satisfies some groups who are worried that immigrants will take jobs and affect social security. Some of his adjustments in social welfare, such as reforms to health care policies, may reduce the medical burden of some middle- and low-income groups to a certain extent.
Intensified social divisions: Some of Trump’s policies and remarks have exacerbated the division and confrontation in American society. The contradictions between his supporters and opponents have become more acute, and the conflicts between different political factions, races and social classes have continued to escalate, which has impacted the social stability and democratic system of the United States and is not conducive to the harmonious development of American society.
Foreign policy
Adjustment of foreign relations: Trump emphasizes “America first” and may reassess the relationship between the United States and its allies, adjust policies such as military deployment and foreign aid, and change the role and status of the United States in international affairs. This may make the United States pay more attention to its own interests on some international issues and reduce its investment in international organizations and multilateral cooperation.
Changes in international influence: Trump’s foreign policy may lead to a strengthening of the United States’ isolationist tendencies on the international stage and weaken its global leadership and influence. Other countries may be dissatisfied and worried about the policy adjustments of the United States, and thus seek to strengthen cooperation with other countries to balance the influence of the United States.
The impact of Trump’s return on other countries
Economic field
Increased trade risks: Trump may continue to implement trade protectionist policies and impose tariffs on other countries, which will lead to a disorder in the global trade order, and export enterprises in other countries will face huge pressure and economic growth will be suppressed. Emerging market countries and developing countries may be hit harder due to their relatively single economic structure and high dependence on exports.
Unstable investment environment: The uncertainty of Trump’s policies will affect the confidence of global investors and make capital flows more unstable. Financial markets in other countries may fluctuate, exchange rates, stock markets, etc. will be impacted, and corporate financing and investment activities will also be disrupted, which is not conducive to the economic development of other countries.
Diplomatic and military fields
Tensions in allied relations: Trump’s attitude towards traditional allied relations such as NATO may make the relationship between the United States and its European allies, South Korea, etc. more complicated and tense. European countries may need to reassess their military cooperation and security guarantee relations with the United States, and Asian allies such as South Korea may also face more uncertainties.
Regional conflict variables: Trump’s positions and policies on issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict may bring new variables to these regional conflicts. If the United States increases its support for one party in the conflict, it may lead to further escalation of the conflict and pose a greater threat to regional and world peace and stability.
International order
Hindered multilateral cooperation: Trump’s questioning of multilateralism and “withdrawal” from international organizations may weaken the role of international organizations such as the United Nations and the World Trade Organization, and pose greater challenges to the global governance system. Cooperation with other countries in addressing global issues such as climate change and terrorism may be hindered, and the stability and fairness of the international order will be impacted.
Emerging countries face both opportunities and challenges: Trump’s policy adjustments may provide some emerging countries with opportunities to play a greater role on the international stage, prompting them to strengthen cooperation and promote the development of multipolarization. But at the same time, emerging countries also need to face the uncertainty and pressure brought about by changes in US policies, such as trade frictions and financial risks.
