Overview of the sudden change in the situation in Syria
From the end of 2024 to the beginning of 2025, the political situation in Syria has undergone major changes. The opposition forces quickly occupied the capital Damascus, overthrew the Assad regime, and established a new government headed by Julani. After the establishment of the new government, it showed a clear pro-Turkish stance234.
Reasons for the sudden change in Syria
Internal factors
Military damage: The Syrian army has suffered a great loss of strength in more than ten years of civil war. Although it has recovered some cities with the support of Russia and Iran after 2018, it has not completely controlled the territory, providing opportunities for the opposition armed forces to attack.
Political division: There are different political factions and interest groups within the Syrian government. The struggles and differences make it difficult for them to act in a unified manner when dealing with crises, while the opposition has united and grown stronger.
External factors
Weakened support from Russia and Iran: Russia’s support for Syria has declined due to the Russian-Ukrainian war, and Iran has also cut its aid to Syria due to its support for Hezbollah in Lebanon to deal with the conflict with Israel.
Intervention by other countries: The United States has been trying to maintain its influence in the changes in the Syrian political situation and may have provided some support to the opposition. Turkey launched air strikes against Kurdish forces in Syria and supported Syrian armed factions to seize cities on the Syrian-Turkish border.
Impact on the international situation
Regional situation
The “Arc of Resistance” suffered a setback: The “Arc of Resistance” organization led by Iran suffered a heavy blow due to the sudden change in the situation in Syria, Iran’s influence declined, and the “Arc of Resistance” faced collapse12.
Tensions between Turkey and Israel: Turkey strongly intervened in Syrian affairs, provided military support to Syria, and planned to build air bases and deploy fighter jets, which undoubtedly enhanced Syria’s military deterrence against Israel and exacerbated tensions between Turkey and Israel3.
Saudi Arabia and other countries are active: Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries have re-dispatched diplomats to Syria, trying to play a greater role in the Syrian issue, and their regional influence may increase.
International situation
US-Russia game: The United States tried to safeguard its own interests in the new situation in Syria, increased military assistance to Israel, and increased troops in northeastern Syria3. Although Russia is restricted by the Ukrainian war, it will not easily give up its interests in Syria and may continue to play games with the United States in various ways.
Internal conflicts within NATO: Turkey’s actions in Syria may cause divisions and conflicts within NATO. As a NATO member, Turkey’s pro-Syrian stance conflicts with the interests of NATO countries such as the United States in the region, which may affect NATO’s strategic layout and internal unity in the Middle East.
